CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	2
Key findings	2
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance	3
Therapeutic strategy	4
Launch and expiry outlook	6
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies	8
Externalization strategy	9
Geographic strategy	10
Molecule type strategy	10
SWOT analysis	11
Strengths	11
Weaknesses	12
Opportunities	12
Threats	13
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY	17
Key findings	17
Background	18
Key corporate developments	18
M&A history	19
Merck-Serono Biopharmaceuticals	19
Divestment of generics business	19
Current corporate structure	20
Pharmaceuticals	20
Ethicals	20
Consumer health	20
Chemicals	21
Performance & Life Science Chemicals	21
Liquid crystals	21
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE	22
Key findings	22
Introduction	23
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2001-06	23
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set	24
Product analysis, 2001-06	26
Growth drivers	26
Rebif	26
Erbitux	27
Concor, Gonal-F and Saizen	27
Growth resistors	27
Glucophage	27
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE	28
Key findings	28
Introduction	29
Revenue and growth rate, 2006-12	29
Product analysis, 2006-12	30
Growth drivers	33
Erbitux	33
Rebif	34
Mylinax	34
Raptiva	34
Concor	34
Growth resistors	34
Gonal-F	34
Therapy area analysis, 2006-12	36
CNS	38
Oncology	38
Immunology & inflammation	39
Therapy area focus	40
Launches and expiries analysis, 2006-12	43
Launch portfolio	43
Core portfolio	45
Expiry portfolio	47
Launch/core/expiry configuration	49
Externalization analysis, 2006-12	52
Geographic analysis, 2006-12	57
Molecule type analysis, 2006-12	61
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS	66
Key findings	66
Overview	67
CNS	68
Rebif	68
Overview	68
Sales forecast	69
Newsflow	69
Competitive landscape	71
Mylinax	74
Overview	74
Sales forecast	75
Newsflow	76
Competitive landscape	76
Oncology	79
Erbitux	79
Overview	79
Sales forecast	80
Newsflow	81
Competitive landscape	82
Women's health	86
Gonal-f	86
Overview	86
Sales forecast	87
Newsflow	87
Competitive landscape	88
Immunology & inflammation	90
Raptiva	90
Overview	90
Sales forecast	91
Newsflow	91
Competitive landscape	92
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX	94
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation	94
Abbreviations	96
Exchange rates	97
List of Tables
Table 1: Peer set overview	24
Table 2: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12	30
Table 3: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2006-12	36
Table 4: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12	43
Table 5: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12	45
Table 6: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12	47
Table 7: Externally developed portfolio ($m), 2006-12	52
Table 8: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2006-12	61
Table 9: Key products overview	67
Table 10: Rebif: overview	68
Table 11: Rebif: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12	69
Table 12: Rebif: newsflow	69
Table 13: Mylinax: overview	74
Table 14: Mylinax: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12	75
Table 15: Oral cladribine: newsflow	76
Table 16: Erbitux: overview	79
Table 17: Erbitux: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12	80
Table 18: Product 1: newsflow	81
Table 19: Gonal-f: overview	86
Table 20: Gonal-f: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12	87
Table 21: Gonal-f: newsflow	87
Table 22: Raptiva: overview	90
Table 23: Raptiva: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12	91
Table 24: Raptiva: newsflow	91
Table 25: Exchange rates, 2006	97
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Merck-Serono and Mid Pharma peer set	3
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Mid Pharma peer set (%), 2006	5
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Merck-Serono	6
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set	7
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2006	8
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2012	9
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Merck-Serono	11
Figure 8: Current corporate structure	20
Figure 9: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2001-06	23
Figure 10: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2001-06	25
Figure 11: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2001-06	26
Figure 12: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2006-12	29
Figure 13: Top five products by sales ($m), 2006	31
Figure 14: Top five products by sales ($m), 2012	32
Figure 15: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2006-12	33
Figure 16: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2006-12	35
Figure 17: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2006-12	37
Figure 18: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area ($m), 2006-12	38
Figure 19: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2006-12	40
Figure 20: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2006	41
Figure 21: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2012	42
Figure 22: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12	44
Figure 23: Core products sales growth ($m), 2006-12	46
Figure 24: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12	48
Figure 25: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2006-12	49
Figure 26: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Merck-Serono	50
Figure 27: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set	51
Figure 28: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2006-12	53
Figure 29: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2006-12	54
Figure 30: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006	55
Figure 31: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012	56
Figure 32: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12	57
Figure 33: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2006-12	58
Figure 34: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006	59
Figure 35: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012	60
Figure 36: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2006-12	62
Figure 37: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12	63
Figure 38: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006	64
Figure 39: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012	65
Figure 40: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2006	95
Figure 41: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2006-12	96